fooled by randomness

December 21, 2023

  • probability is not about learning complex formulae and deep mathematical models. probability is about figuring out what you know in life and what you don't know. and once that is figured out, figure out ways to deal with what we don't know and how to respond to those events. Try to poke holes into what you know. Let's say you are wrong, how do you hedge against being wrong? What measures do you have in place to correct your actions in case you turn out to be wrong?

  • What others say is never deep enough in your consciousness. Trust your own experience. Things that sound intelligent are only good for cocktail parties. Stop trying to look intelligent to others. Delve deep into your experiences and extract reality based lessons rather than absorbing other people's experience from books. That is not to say stop reading books altogether. It is always good to learn from others mistakes, but try to experience as much as possible in life, so the knowledge is based on your reality.